The Great Recalibration: What the Art Market’s Reset Means for Collectors

By Simon Kenny | 8 min read

The global art market reset of 2024 and 2025 saw sales fall 12 per cent to $57.5 billion before recovering 4 per cent to $59.6 billion in 2025, according to the Art Basel and UBS Global Art Market Report 2026. The contraction was concentrated at the ultra-high end. Growth came from smaller galleries, first-time buyers, and a more diverse collector base.

Watching the market recalibrate across 2024 and 2025 has not been abstract. It has shown up in gallery conversations, in the pace of enquiries, in who is looking and what they are looking for. The data tells a story I have been part of. You can read more about my exhibition career on my biography page.

What happened to the art market recalibration between 2024 and 2025?

Global art sales fell to $57.5 billion in 2024, a 12 per cent decline driven by a collapse at the ultra-high end, where works over $10 million dropped 39 per cent in volume. The market recovered 4 per cent in 2025 to $59.6 billion, led by a rebound in public auction sales and steady dealer activity.

The most striking feature of the 2024 contraction was not the headline fall but the divergence beneath it. While aggregate values fell, the number of transactions grew 3 per cent to 40.5 million. More people were buying art, simply at lower price points, and in doing so they began reshaping what the market looks like.

The 2025 recovery was not a return to the speculative fever of 2021 and 2022. Public and private auction sales rose 6 per cent to $24.8 billion, and the dealer sector grew 2 per cent to $34.8 billion. Overall values remained around 12 per cent below the 2022 peak.

Dr Clare McAndrew, reporting for Arts Economics, noted the market operated throughout 2025 in a volatile geopolitical environment where protectionism created particular problems for a trade that depends on international circulation.

Evidence: Global art market sales recovered to $59.6 billion in 2025, a 4 per cent year-on-year increase, after a 12 per cent contraction to $57.5 billion in 2024. Transaction volume grew to 41.5 million in 2025.
Source: Art Basel and UBS Global Art Market Report 2026, Arts Economics, released March 2026.

Why did smaller galleries and first-time buyers drive growth during the contraction?

Small galleries with turnovers under $250,000 reported a 17 per cent sales increase in 2024, while large dealers above $10 million saw a 9 per cent decline. Buyers moved toward accessible price points, and 44 per cent of dealers reported that new buyers were the primary driver of their activity.

The rise of smaller galleries in a falling market feels counterintuitive until you consider why it happened. Collectors who might previously have chased trophy works began looking, with fresh attention, at work priced where a genuine relationship could form.

Half of all transactions at galleries with turnovers under $250,000 involved a first-time collector. That is not a marginal statistic. That is the foundation of a new collector generation.

Mid-tier galleries in the $1 million to $5 million turnover bracket saw 10 per cent growth in 2024. The middle held while the top retreated. By 2025, the dealer sector returned to growth across all tiers, with lower-end galleries leading volume. The market had rebuilt itself from the middle outward.

Evidence: Small dealers with turnovers under $250,000 reported a 17 per cent sales increase in 2024. Fifty per cent of their transactions involved first-time collectors. Mid-tier dealers with $1m to $5m turnover grew 10 per cent.
Source: Art Basel and UBS Global Art Market Report 2025, Arts Economics, published 2025.

How did the UK art market hold its ground against the global correction?

UK art sales fell 5 per cent in 2024 to $10.4 billion, significantly less than the global 12 per cent contraction and far less than China’s 31 per cent decline. The UK reclaimed second place globally with an 18 per cent share, surpassing China for the first time in over a decade.

Working from the UK, and exhibiting with gallery partners here and across Europe, I felt this resilience practically. Enquiries continued. The relationships between artists, dealers, and collectors maintained where more volatile markets struggled. London’s gallery circuit stayed active throughout a period when several global hubs were contracting more severely.

Early 2026 confirmed London’s auction market had emerged in strong shape. Christie’s 20th and 21st Century Evening Sales in March 2026 achieved £197.5 million, a 52 per cent increase year-on-year, led by Henry Moore’s King and Queen setting a new world auction record for the artist.

Sotheby’s spring London sale posted a 100 per cent sell-through rate. UK sales rose a further 2 per cent in 2025 to $10.5 billion. These results signal not a return to recklessness, but a market that has found more disciplined footing.

Evidence: UK art sales reached $10.4 billion in 2024, an 18 per cent global share, reclaiming second place globally as China’s market contracted 31 per cent. UK sales rose to $10.5 billion in 2025.
Source: Art Basel and UBS Global Art Market Report 2025 and 2026, Arts Economics.

What does the Great Wealth Transfer mean for the next generation of art collectors?

An estimated $83 trillion will pass between generations over the coming decades in what economists have called the Great Wealth Transfer. Millennial and Gen Z collectors are already active in the art market, dedicating on average 26 per cent of their investable wealth to their collections, compared to the wider high-net-worth average of 20 per cent.

Paul Donovan, Chief Economist at UBS, identified this transfer as the structural shift that will define the art market’s next phase. Younger collectors favour authenticity and meaning over prestige. Fifty-six per cent of Gen Z respondents in the 2026 report planned to attend more art events than the previous year. They are not waiting to be initiated. They are walking in.

Female collectors are a significant part of this shift. Women’s average spending on art was 46 per cent higher than men’s in 2024. Primary market galleries reached near parity in 2025, with women accounting for 45 per cent of represented artists, up from 35 per cent in 2018.

Works by female artists generated 37 per cent of dealer sales by value in 2025, up from 28 per cent in 2018. The art world is becoming more inclusive, and the economics are following.

What I find most compelling about these demographic shifts is their long-term implication for artists who work with genuine intent. The collectors arriving in this market are not primarily chasing investment returns, though returns remain important. They are looking for work that holds meaning. That changes the nature of the conversation. It brings the work itself back to the centre.

Evidence: Gen Z HNW collectors dedicate an average of 26 per cent of their wealth to art versus 20 per cent across all HNW individuals. Female collectors spent 46 per cent more on art than male collectors in 2024. $83 trillion will transfer between generations in the coming decades.
Source: Art Basel and UBS Global Art Market Report 2026, Arts Economics, released March 2026; UBS Global Wealth Management, Paul Donovan, 2026.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is the global art market recovering in 2025 and 2026?

Yes. Global art market sales rose 4 per cent to $59.6 billion in 2025 following a 12 per cent contraction in 2024. Early 2026 auction results in London and New York show strong sell-through rates and record prices for established artists.

Is the UK still a leading art market after Brexit?

Yes. The UK held 18 per cent of global art sales in both 2024 and 2025, reclaiming second place globally. UK sales reached $10.5 billion in 2025, with London remaining a primary hub for high-quality auction activity and gallery trade despite ongoing post-Brexit administrative complexity.

Are younger collectors reshaping how the art market works?

Yes. Millennial and Gen Z collectors now represent a significant and growing segment, allocating higher proportions of wealth to art and attending more events. The $83 trillion intergenerational wealth transfer will likely accelerate this over the coming decade, bringing values-driven buying to the fore.

What the reset reveals

The Great Recalibration was not the disaster some feared. It was the art market clearing excess and finding steadier ground. The data tells a story of contraction at the speculative top and growth everywhere else: in small galleries, in mid-market transactions, in the number of first-time buyers walking through gallery doors.

Having spent over two decades exhibiting across more than a hundred shows and fourteen countries, this environment feels like one where the work can speak more directly. Less noise. More genuine attention. That is what galleries exist to create, and what this recalibration, for all its difficulty, has partly restored.

To explore original work from the studio or enquire about a commission, browse the collection here.